Biggest moves · 50 markets

Biggest price moves across Kalshi and Polymarket

The Kalshi and Polymarket contracts whose implied probability moved the most since we started recording each one. Sorted by absolute price change. A large mover is a signal that new information, or a liquidity gap, has repriced the market.

Top movers

Biggest price changes across the book

Market	Market price	Volume	Move	Dir
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following	1¢	$3	-48.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following	35¢	$4	-41.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following	10¢	$0	-39.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following	2¢	$122	-39.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following	13¢	$5	-36.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following	15¢	$0	-34.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following	83¢	$1	+33.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following	81¢	$1	+31.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following	21¢	$4	-29.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following	25¢	$5,596	+21.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following	30¢	$0	-20.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following	55¢	$5,294	-18.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following	32¢	$0	-17.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following	33¢	$0	-16.5pp	↓
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	62¢	$5,600,388	+16.0pp	↑
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	30¢	$4,018,954	-14.8pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following	35¢	$0	-14.5pp	↓
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	63¢	$2,388,128	-12.0pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be 73-74° on Oct 13, 2026: 73° to 74°	10¢	$3,537	-12.0pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be 82-83° on Oct 13, 2026: 82° to 83°	44¢	$1,065	+12.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following	38¢	$0	-11.5pp	↓
Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026: 125,000	14¢	$1,624	-11.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following	10¢	$16	-11.0pp	↓
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	72¢	$1,078,943	-10.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following	39¢	$0	-10.5pp	↓
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	26¢	$3,812,154	-10.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following	40¢	$0	-9.5pp	↓
Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026: 70,000	43¢	$22,112	-9.0pp	↓
Will above 30000 jobs be added in November 2026: Above 30,000	76¢	$648	+9.0pp	↑
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	64¢	$1,055,705	-8.5pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be <82° on Oct 13, 2026: 81° or below	42¢	$3,522	-8.0pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be <71° on Oct 13, 2026: 70° or below	36¢	$4,077	+8.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following	43¢	$0	-7.0pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be 74-75° on Oct 13, 2026: 74° to 75°	33¢	$4,247	+6.0pp	↑
Will above 50000 jobs be added in October 2026: 50,000	56¢	$18,467	-6.0pp	↓
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	12¢	$1,993,184	-5.5pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Oct 13, 2026: 68° to 69°	3¢	$1,677	-5.0pp	↓
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	10¢	$2,406,448	+5.0pp	↑
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	30¢	$7,041,177	-5.0pp	↓
Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026: 60,000	43¢	$1,712	-5.0pp	↓
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	1¢	$1,190,546	-4.3pp	↓
Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026: 80,000	41¢	$14,938	-4.0pp	↓
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	14¢	$14,634,099	-4.0pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be >75° on Oct 13, 2026: 76° or above	4¢	$1,441	-3.0pp	↓
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 me	19¢	$7,688,437	+3.0pp	↑
Will above 90000 jobs be added in November 2026: 90,000	40¢	$707	-3.0pp	↓
Will above 0 jobs be added in November 2026?	79¢	$510	-3.0pp	↓
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	10¢	$1,712,857	-2.5pp	↓
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	25¢	$1,316,859	+2.5pp	↑
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	4¢	$993,621	-2.3pp	↓

Methodology

How the move is calculated

Each row on this page is a live contract with at least two prices in our archive. The move column is the latest price minus the first price we recorded for that contract, in percentage points.

A move of +30pp means the implied probability rose 30 points over the window we have tracked. A large move can mean new information reached the market. It can also mean a thin market where one order shifted the price, so check the volume column before reading much into it.

This page is not trading advice. Treat the move column as a starting point for your own research, not a recommendation.

Data sources

Market prices: the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs.
Price history: our own archive of each refresh, which is why newer contracts have shorter windows.
Refresh: several times a day.

For weather contracts, see how the market's favorite compares with the National Weather Service forecast on market vs meteorologist.