Match markets, priced by the crowd.
Every open football and tennis match on Limitless, a crypto prediction exchange, with the Polymarket price beside it when the same match trades there. Each price is the cost of a Yes contract on that result, in cents, so a 68¢ favorite is a 68 percent crowd estimate. Sorted by kickoff, Eastern time.
Updated 12:04 AM ET, Oct 13 · prices refresh with each site build
Kalshi football against the sportsbooks
For every NFL and college football game on Kalshi in the next four days, we compare what a Yes contract costs on Kalshi, with Kalshi's fee included, against the sportsbooks' consensus with their margin removed and against Polymarket's price for the same game. A double-checked pick is a side that Kalshi sells for less than both of them.
No double-checked picks right now. Across the 40 games we could match, the typical Kalshi side costs 2.2¢ more than the sportsbooks once its fee is added, so Kalshi's football prices are fair to slightly expensive this week. The closest calls are below.
Closest to a discount
| Side | Kalshi cost | Sportsbooks | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent St. to beat South FloridaCollege football, Sat Oct 17, 7 PM ET | Kalshi 9.6¢ | Sportsbooks 10.1¢9 books | Polymarket not listed | +0.6¢ |
| Colorado to beat UtahCollege football, Sat Oct 17, 10:15 PM ET | Kalshi 14.8¢ | Sportsbooks 14.9¢8 books | Polymarket not listed | +0.1¢ |
| Colorado St. to beat Texas St.College football, Thu Oct 15, 8 PM ET | Kalshi 18.0¢ | Sportsbooks 17.8¢9 books | Polymarket not listed | -0.1¢ |
| Charlotte to beat TempleCollege football, Sat Oct 17, 1 PM ET | Kalshi 8.5¢ | Sportsbooks 8.3¢9 books | Polymarket not listed | -0.2¢ |
| Syracuse to beat LouisvilleCollege football, Sat Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET | Kalshi 16.9¢ | Sportsbooks 16.3¢9 books | Polymarket not listed | -0.6¢ |
| Oklahoma to beat KentuckyCollege football, Sat Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET | Kalshi 70.5¢ | Sportsbooks 69.5¢9 books | Polymarket not listed | -0.9¢ |
| Arizona St. to beat Texas TechCollege football, Sat Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET | Kalshi 16.9¢ | Sportsbooks 15.9¢9 books | Polymarket not listed | -1.0¢ |
| Sacramento St. to beat OhioCollege football, Sat Oct 17, 10 PM ET | Kalshi 18.0¢ | Sportsbooks 17.0¢9 books | Polymarket not listed | -1.0¢ |
Difference is the sportsbooks' price minus Kalshi's cost, so a positive number means Kalshi sells that side for less. Kalshi's fee per contract is 7 percent of the price times one minus the price, and a limit order at the bid usually costs less than the numbers shown. Sportsbook prices are averaged across US books and were fetched for this build.
Biggest movers today
How far each favorite's Yes price has moved since the first build of the day. A line that moves this much is the crowd changing its mind, usually on news, a lineup, or money arriving.
| Match | This morning | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino vs CruzeiroRB Bragantino to win, in play | 46¢1:03 PM ET, Oct 12 | 99¢ | ▲53¢ |
| Katerina Siniakova vs Liudmila SamsonovaLiudmila Samsonova to win, in play | 52¢1:03 PM ET, Oct 12 | 91¢ | ▲39¢ |
| Dayana Yastremska vs Cristina BucsaDayana Yastremska to win, in play | 53¢1:03 PM ET, Oct 12 | 76¢ | ▲23¢ |
| Kimberly Birrell vs Katie VolynetsKatie Volynets to win, in play | 62¢1:03 PM ET, Oct 12 | 51¢ | ▼11¢ |
| Mayar Sherif vs Maja ChwalinskaMaja Chwalinska to win | 79¢1:03 PM ET, Oct 12 | 83¢ | ▲4¢ |
| Yulia Putintseva vs Zeynep SonmezYulia Putintseva to win | 54¢5:03 PM ET, Oct 12 | 57¢ | ▲3¢ |
The two venues agree within a cent on 6 of the 7 shared matches. The rest are below.
Where the two venues disagree
Same match, two crowds. The gap is the Limitless Yes price minus the Polymarket Yes price for the Limitless favorite. A big gap means one venue thinks the favorite is a lot safer than the other does.
| Match | Limitless | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dayana Yastremska vs Cristina BucsaDayana Yastremska to win | 76¢ | 70¢ | +6¢ |
Brasil Série A Football
| Kickoff | Match | Limitless, Yes price by result | Polymarket, same results | Favorite | Traded | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 12, 8:00 PM ET in play | RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro | Limitless book 101¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | RB Bragantino 99¢▲17¢ | $5,418 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
WTA Wuhan Open Tennis
| Kickoff | Match | Limitless, Yes price by result | Polymarket, same results | Favorite | Traded | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 12, 10:00 PM ET in play | Dayana Yastremska vs Cristina BucsaWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ Limitless +6¢ on Dayana Yastremska | Dayana Yastremska 76¢▲23¢ | $7 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 10:00 PM ET in play | Katerina Siniakova vs Liudmila SamsonovaWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Liudmila Samsonova 91¢▲40¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Mon Oct 12, 10:00 PM ET in play | Kimberly Birrell vs Katie VolynetsWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Katie Volynets 51¢▼12¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 12:30 AM ET | Hanyu Guo vs Sorana CirsteaWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Sorana Cirstea 88¢▲1¢ | $58 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 12:30 AM ET | Katie Boulter vs Diana ShnaiderWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Diana Shnaider 78¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 12:30 AM ET | Mayar Sherif vs Maja ChwalinskaWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Maja Chwalinska 83¢▲1¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 12:30 AM ET | Yulia Putintseva vs Zeynep SonmezWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Yulia Putintseva 57¢▲1¢ | $8 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 2:00 AM ET | Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena OstapenkoWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Jelena Ostapenko 55¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 2:00 AM ET | Daria Snigur vs Elise MertensWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Elise Mertens 67¢▲1¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 2:00 AM ET | Lilli Tagger vs Nikola BartunkovaWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Polymarket book 100¢ | Nikola Bartunkova 69¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗Polymarket ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 2:00 AM ET | Maria Sakkari vs Marta KostyukWTA Wuhan - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Marta Kostyuk 65¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 3:30 AM ET | Ann Li vs Camila OsorioWTA Wuhan - 1/32-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Ann Li 57¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
ATP Shanghai Masters Tennis
| Kickoff | Match | Limitless, Yes price by result | Polymarket, same results | Favorite | Traded | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 13, 12:00 AM ET in play | Alex de Minaur vs Karen KhachanovATP Shanghai - 1/8-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Alex de Minaur 55¢▲1¢ | $53 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 1:30 AM ET | Arthur Gea vs Jakub MensikATP Shanghai - 1/8-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Jakub Mensik 61¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 6:00 AM ET | Alexander Zverev vs Alexander BublikATP Shanghai - 1/8-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Alexander Zverev 70¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
ATP Olbia Challenger Tennis
| Kickoff | Match | Limitless, Yes price by result | Polymarket, same results | Favorite | Traded | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 13, 4:00 AM ET | Michael Geerts vs Pavel LagutinCatania - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Pavel Lagutin 74¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 4:00 AM ET | Michele Ribecai vs Radu Mihai PapoeCatania - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Michele Ribecai 55¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 5:30 AM ET | Enrico Dalla Valle vs Federico BondioliCatania - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Enrico Dalla Valle 65¢▼2¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 5:30 AM ET | Federico Iannaccone vs Filip JianuCatania - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Filip Jianu 51¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 5:30 AM ET | Gianluca Cadenasso vs Kai WehneltCatania - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Gianluca Cadenasso 71¢▼2¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
WTA Lisboa Belem Open Tennis
| Kickoff | Match | Limitless, Yes price by result | Polymarket, same results | Favorite | Traded | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 13, 6:00 AM ET | Adrienn Nagy vs Selena JanicijevicLisbon - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Adrienn Nagy 50¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 6:00 AM ET | Darja Semenistaja vs Mathilde LolliaLisbon - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Darja Semenistaja 82¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 6:00 AM ET | Lisa Zaar vs Matilde JorgeLisbon - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Lisa Zaar 64¢ | $0 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
| Tue Oct 13, 6:00 AM ET | Martina Colmegna vs Francesca JonesLisbon - 1/16-finals | Limitless book 100¢ | Not listed on Polymarket | Francesca Jones 90¢ | $11 | Trade on Limitless ↗ |
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How the crowd has done
Every match that has settled since this board went up, with the favorite's price at kickoff and what actually happened. A crowd that is well calibrated wins about as often as its prices say it should: favorites priced 70¢ should win about seven times in ten.
| Match | Favorite at kickoff | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG vs SantosBrasil Série A, Sun Oct 11, 3:00 PM ET | Atletico-MG 43¢ | Atletico-MG, favorite |
| Racing Santander vs ValenciaSpain LaLiga, Sun Oct 11, 3:00 PM ET | Racing Santander 42¢ | Draw, upset |
| Racing Santander vs ValenciaSpain LaLiga, Sun Oct 11, 3:00 PM ET | Racing Santander 62¢ | Racing Santander, favorite |
| Racing Santander vs ValenciaSpain LaLiga, Sun Oct 11, 3:00 PM ET | Racing Santander 57¢ | Racing Santander, favorite |
| Arouca vs EstrelaPortugal Primeira Liga, Sun Oct 11, 3:30 PM ET | Arouca 44¢ | Arouca, favorite |
| Palmeiras vs CorinthiansBrasil Série A, Sun Oct 11, 4:30 PM ET | Palmeiras 59¢ | Palmeiras, favorite |
| Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsATP Shanghai Masters | Zizou Bergs 99¢ | Zizou Bergs, favorite |
| 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SVBundesliga | 1899 Hoffenheim 61¢ | 1899 Hoffenheim, favorite |
| 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SVBundesliga | 1899 Hoffenheim 70¢ | 1899 Hoffenheim, favorite |
| FC Augsburg vs Bayern MünchenBundesliga | FC Augsburg 64¢ | FC Augsburg, favorite |
| FC Augsburg vs Bayern MünchenBundesliga | FC Augsburg 86¢ | FC Augsburg, favorite |
| FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga | FSV Mainz 05 65¢ | FSV Mainz 05, favorite |
| Liverpool vs Manchester CityEnglish Premier League, Sun Oct 11, 11:30 AM ET | Liverpool 55¢ | Liverpool, favorite |
| Liverpool vs Manchester CityEnglish Premier League, Sun Oct 11, 11:30 AM ET | Manchester City 99¢ | Manchester City, favorite |
| Liverpool vs Manchester CityEnglish Premier League, Sun Oct 11, 11:30 AM ET | Liverpool 88¢ | Liverpool, favorite |
| SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04Bundesliga, Sun Oct 11, 11:30 AM ET | SC Freiburg 99¢ | SC Freiburg, favorite |
| SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04Bundesliga, Sun Oct 11, 11:30 AM ET | FC Schalke 04 50¢ | SC Freiburg, upset |
| Sassuolo vs AC MilanItaly Serie A, Sun Oct 11, 12:00 PM ET | AC Milan 46¢ | Draw, upset |
| Real Betis vs OsasunaSpain LaLiga, Sun Oct 11, 12:30 PM ET | Real Betis 82¢ | Real Betis, favorite |
| Real Betis vs OsasunaSpain LaLiga, Sun Oct 11, 12:30 PM ET | Real Betis 52¢ | Real Betis, favorite |
How to read this board
The Polymarket column shows the same results priced by Polymarket's traders when that match is listed there too; "Limitless +7¢" under it means Limitless prices the favorite seven cents higher than Polymarket does. The small arrow beside a favorite is how far its price moved since the previous build, and the movers table at the top ranks the day's biggest swings. "book 104¢" under a bar is what that match's Yes prices add up to: the 4¢ over 100 is the market maker's margin, so a lower book total is a cheaper match to trade. Switch prices to decimal or American odds above the board if that is how you read them: a 68¢ Yes price is 1.47 decimal and -213 American.
Each bar splits a match into its possible results. The width of a segment is the current Yes price for that result, which the market treats as its probability. Football has three results, so the three segments usually add up to a little under a dollar, and the gap is the spread traders pay. Tennis has two. The favorite is simply the result with the highest price right now; it moves with every trade, so it is a snapshot of the crowd at build time rather than a prediction from us.
Limitless is a crypto prediction exchange: you trade with a connected wallet and contracts settle on-chain. It is a partner of PicksByOdds. Links on this page carry our referral code once it is active, and PicksByOdds may earn a reward when you sign up through them, at no cost to you. Prices are shown as information. PicksByOdds does not give betting advice, and the other markets we track live on Kalshi and Polymarket.