Same question, two exchanges · 134 verified pairs

Kalshi vs. Polymarket price gaps

Every row is one question that both exchanges are trading right now, with each side's live bid and ask. Most pairs agree to within a point. The ones that do not are at the top.

Where the books cross

On 42 of 134 shared questions the highest bid on one exchange is above the lowest ask on the other. Each band runs from an exchange's bid to its ask. The green space between them is the locked gap.

Kalshi bid to ask
Polymarket bid to ask
Locked gap

Chiang Wan-anTaipei mayoral election winner

62¢66¢

4.0¢32.4% a year · 47d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 62¢ and NO on Polymarket at 34¢. That is 96¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 29, 2026: 4.0¢ locked, 32.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
François HollandeNext French presidential election winner

3.3¢7¢

3.7¢7.5% a year · 188d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 3.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 93¢. That is 96.3¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 3.7¢ locked, 7.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Grand Theft Auto VIThe Game Awards: Game of the Year

65¢68¢

3.0¢14.1% a year · 80d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 65¢ and NO on Kalshi at 32¢. That is 97¢ for a $1 payout around Jan 1, 2027: 3.0¢ locked, 14.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Marco Rubio2028 Republican presidential nominee

14.8¢17¢

2.2¢1.1% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 14.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 83¢. That is 97.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 2.2¢ locked, 1.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Brad BradfordToronto mayoral election winner

31¢33¢

2.0¢53.2% a year · 14d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 31¢ and NO on Kalshi at 67¢. That is 98¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 27, 2026: 2.0¢ locked, 53.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Oklahoma City Thunder2027 Pro Basketball Champion

20¢22¢

2.0¢2.9% a year · 261d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 20¢ and NO on Kalshi at 78¢. That is 98¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 2.0¢ locked, 2.9% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Olivia ChowToronto mayoral election winner

68¢70¢

2.0¢53.2% a year · 14d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 68¢ and NO on Polymarket at 30¢. That is 98¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 27, 2026: 2.0¢ locked, 53.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Jon Ossoff2028 Democratic presidential nominee

14.5¢16¢

1.5¢0.7% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 14.5¢ and NO on Kalshi at 84¢. That is 98.5¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.5¢ locked, 0.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
David LisnardNext French presidential election winner

1.4¢2.8% a year · 188d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 13.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 85¢. That is 98.6¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 1.4¢ locked, 2.8% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Gavin Newsom2028 Democratic presidential nominee

1.4¢0.7% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 14¢ and NO on Polymarket at 84.6¢. That is 98.6¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.4¢ locked, 0.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Andy Beshear2028 Democratic presidential nominee

1.4¢0.7% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 3.5¢ and NO on Kalshi at 95.1¢. That is 98.6¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.4¢ locked, 0.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Ron DeSantis2028 Republican presidential nominee

1.3¢0.6% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 2.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 96.1¢. That is 98.7¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.3¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Mark Kelly2028 Democratic presidential nominee

1.3¢0.6% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 2.5¢ and NO on Kalshi at 96.2¢. That is 98.7¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.3¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Cleveland GuardiansPro Baseball Champion

1.2¢24.6% a year · 18d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 15.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 83.5¢. That is 98.8¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 31, 2026: 1.2¢ locked, 24.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Miami Heat2027 Pro Basketball Champion

1.2¢1.7% a year · 261d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 3.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 95¢. That is 98.8¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 1.2¢ locked, 1.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Kamala Harris2028 Democratic presidential nominee

1.2¢0.6% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 6.2¢ and NO on Kalshi at 92.6¢. That is 98.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.2¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Josh Shapiro2028 Democratic presidential nominee

1.2¢0.6% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 4.7¢ and NO on Polymarket at 94.1¢. That is 98.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.2¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Detroit Pistons2027 Pro Basketball Champion

1.1¢1.6% a year · 261d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 2¢ and NO on Polymarket at 96.9¢. That is 98.9¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 1.1¢ locked, 1.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Ken SimVancouver mayoral election winner

1.0¢73.7% a year · 5d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 32¢ and NO on Kalshi at 67¢. That is 99¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 18, 2026: 1.0¢ locked, 73.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Brian Kemp2028 Republican presidential nominee

0.9¢0.4% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.5¢. That is 99.1¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.9¢ locked, 0.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
J.B. Pritzker2028 Democratic presidential nominee

0.9¢0.4% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 1.4¢ and NO on Kalshi at 97.7¢. That is 99.1¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.9¢ locked, 0.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Jordan BardellaNext French presidential election winner

0.8¢1.6% a year · 188d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.6¢. That is 99.2¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.8¢ locked, 1.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Kylian MbappéWho will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026

0.5¢2.3% a year · 80d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 3.5¢ and NO on Kalshi at 96¢. That is 99.5¢ for a $1 payout around Jan 1, 2027: 0.5¢ locked, 2.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Baltimore Ravens2027 Pro Football Champion

0.4¢0.9% a year · 170d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 7.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 92¢. That is 99.6¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 1, 2027: 0.4¢ locked, 0.9% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Raphael Warnock2028 Democratic presidential nominee

0.4¢0.2% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and NO on Kalshi at 97.7¢. That is 99.6¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.4¢ locked, 0.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Sarah KnafoNext French presidential election winner

0.4¢0.8% a year · 188d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.7¢. That is 99.6¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.4¢ locked, 0.8% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Toronto Raptors2027 Pro Basketball Champion

0.3¢0.4% a year · 261d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 3¢ and NO on Polymarket at 96.7¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 0.3¢ locked, 0.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Christine LagardeNext French presidential election winner

0.3¢0.6% a year · 188d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.3¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Orlando Magic2027 Pro Basketball Champion

0.2¢0.3% a year · 261d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 0.2¢ locked, 0.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Denver Nuggets2027 Pro Basketball Champion

0.2¢0.3% a year · 261d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 3¢ and NO on Polymarket at 96.8¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 0.2¢ locked, 0.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2028 Democratic presidential nominee

0.2¢0.1% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 0.2¢ and NO on Polymarket at 99.6¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.2¢ locked, 0.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Lionel MessiWho will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026

0.1¢0.5% a year · 80d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 2.9¢ and NO on Kalshi at 97¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Jan 1, 2027: 0.1¢ locked, 0.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Marine Le PenNext French presidential election winner

0.1¢0.2% a year · 188d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 41.9¢ and NO on Kalshi at 58¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.1¢ locked, 0.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Ruben Gallego2028 Democratic presidential nominee

0.1¢0.0% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.6¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Bruno RetailleauNext French presidential election winner

0.1¢0.2% a year · 188d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.7¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.1¢ locked, 0.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Gabriel AttalNext French presidential election winner

0.1¢0.2% a year · 188d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 1.7¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.2¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.1¢ locked, 0.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.2028 Republican presidential nominee

0.1¢0.0% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.6¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Eric Trump2028 Republican presidential nominee

0.1¢0.0% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.7¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Vivek Ramaswamy2028 Republican presidential nominee

0.1¢0.0% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.6¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
James Talarico2028 Democratic presidential nominee

0.1¢0.0% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 2¢ and NO on Polymarket at 97.9¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Tulsi Gabbard2028 Republican presidential nominee

0.1¢0.0% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 0.3¢ and NO on Polymarket at 99.6¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket
Ted Cruz2028 Republican presidential nominee

0.1¢0.0% a year · 757d

Buy YES on Kalshi at 2.2¢ and NO on Polymarket at 97.7¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

Outcome	Kalshi bid / ask	Polymarket bid / ask	Midpoint gap	Locked gap
Chiang Wan-an Taipei mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	61¢ / 62¢	66.0¢ / 67.0¢	5.0pp	4.0¢ 32.4% a year, 47 days
François Hollande Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	7¢ / 8¢	3.2¢ / 3.3¢	4.3pp	3.7¢ 7.5% a year, 188 days
Grand Theft Auto VI The Game Awards: Game of the Year · Kalshi · Polymarket	68¢ / 70¢	63.0¢ / 65.0¢	5.0pp	3.0¢ 14.1% a year, 80 days
Marco Rubio 2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	17¢ / 18¢	14.7¢ / 14.8¢	2.7pp	2.2¢ 1.1% a year, 757 days
Brad Bradford Toronto mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	33¢ / 34¢	29.0¢ / 31.0¢	3.5pp	2.0¢ 53.2% a year, 14 days
Oklahoma City Thunder 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	22¢ / 23¢	19.0¢ / 20.0¢	3.0pp	2.0¢ 2.9% a year, 261 days
Olivia Chow Toronto mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	67¢ / 68¢	70.0¢ / 71.0¢	3.0pp	2.0¢ 53.2% a year, 14 days
Jon Ossoff 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	16¢ / 17¢	14.4¢ / 14.5¢	2.1pp	1.5¢ 0.7% a year, 757 days
David Lisnard Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	15¢ / 16¢	13.5¢ / 13.6¢	1.9pp	1.4¢ 2.8% a year, 188 days
Gavin Newsom 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	13¢ / 14¢	15.4¢ / 15.5¢	1.9pp	1.4¢ 0.7% a year, 757 days
Andy Beshear 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	5¢ / 5¢	3.4¢ / 3.5¢	1.5pp	1.4¢ 0.7% a year, 757 days
Ron DeSantis 2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	4¢ / 4¢	2.4¢ / 2.6¢	1.6pp	1.3¢ 0.6% a year, 757 days
Mark Kelly 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	4¢ / 4¢	2.4¢ / 2.5¢	1.4pp	1.3¢ 0.6% a year, 757 days
Cleveland Guardians Pro Baseball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	16¢ / 17¢	14.4¢ / 15.3¢	2.0pp	1.2¢ 24.6% a year, 18 days
Miami Heat 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	5¢ / 6¢	3.7¢ / 3.8¢	1.8pp	1.2¢ 1.7% a year, 261 days
Kamala Harris 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	7¢ / 8¢	6.1¢ / 6.2¢	1.4pp	1.2¢ 0.6% a year, 757 days
Josh Shapiro 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	5¢ / 5¢	5.9¢ / 6.0¢	1.3pp	1.2¢ 0.6% a year, 757 days
Detroit Pistons 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 2¢	3.1¢ / 3.2¢	1.7pp	1.1¢ 1.6% a year, 261 days
Ken Sim Vancouver mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	33¢ / 34¢	31.0¢ / 32.0¢	2.0pp	1.0¢ 73.7% a year, 5 days
Brian Kemp 2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 2¢	0.5¢ / 0.6¢	1.1pp	0.9¢ 0.4% a year, 757 days
J.B. Pritzker 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 2¢	1.3¢ / 1.4¢	1.0pp	0.9¢ 0.4% a year, 757 days
Jordan Bardella Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 2¢	0.5¢ / 0.6¢	0.9pp	0.8¢ 1.6% a year, 188 days
Kylian Mbappé Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket	4¢ / 5¢	2.7¢ / 3.5¢	1.4pp	0.5¢ 2.3% a year, 80 days
Baltimore Ravens 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	8¢ / 9¢	7.5¢ / 7.6¢	0.9pp	0.4¢ 0.9% a year, 170 days
Raphael Warnock 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 2¢	1.7¢ / 1.9¢	0.5pp	0.4¢ 0.2% a year, 757 days
Sarah Knafo Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 1¢	0.8¢ / 0.9¢	0.5pp	0.4¢ 0.8% a year, 188 days
Toronto Raptors 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 3¢	3.3¢ / 3.4¢	0.9pp	0.3¢ 0.4% a year, 261 days
Christine Lagarde Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 2¢	0.6¢ / 0.7¢	0.8pp	0.3¢ 0.6% a year, 188 days
Orlando Magic 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 2¢	0.7¢ / 0.8¢	0.8pp	0.2¢ 0.3% a year, 261 days
Denver Nuggets 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 3¢	3.2¢ / 3.3¢	0.8pp	0.2¢ 0.3% a year, 261 days
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.4¢ / 0.5¢	0.3pp	0.2¢ 0.1% a year, 757 days
Lionel Messi Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket	3¢ / 5¢	2.8¢ / 2.9¢	1.1pp	0.1¢ 0.5% a year, 80 days
Marine Le Pen Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	42¢ / 43¢	41.8¢ / 41.9¢	0.7pp	0.1¢ 0.2% a year, 188 days
Ruben Gallego 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.2¢ / 0.3¢	0.2pp	0.1¢ 0.0% a year, 757 days
Bruno Retailleau Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 1¢	1.1¢ / 1.2¢	0.2pp	0.1¢ 0.2% a year, 188 days
Gabriel Attal Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 2¢	1.5¢ / 1.7¢	0.2pp	0.1¢ 0.2% a year, 188 days
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.2¢ / 0.3¢	0.2pp	0.1¢ 0.0% a year, 757 days
Eric Trump 2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.2pp	0.1¢ 0.0% a year, 757 days
Vivek Ramaswamy 2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.2¢ / 0.3¢	0.2pp	0.1¢ 0.0% a year, 757 days
James Talarico 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 2¢	2.1¢ / 2.2¢	0.2pp	0.1¢ 0.0% a year, 757 days
Tulsi Gabbard 2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.4¢ / 0.5¢	0.2pp	0.1¢ 0.0% a year, 757 days
Ted Cruz 2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 2¢	2.3¢ / 2.4¢	0.2pp	0.1¢ 0.0% a year, 757 days
Lamine Yamal Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket	29¢ / 30¢	30.0¢ / 31.3¢	1.2pp	none
Buffalo Bills 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	11¢ / 12¢	12.0¢ / 13.0¢	1.0pp	none
Manchester City English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	21¢ / 22¢	20.0¢ / 21.0¢	1.0pp	none
Édouard Philippe Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	20¢ / 21¢	21.0¢ / 22.0¢	1.0pp	none
Seattle Seahawks 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	8¢ / 9¢	7.0¢ / 8.0¢	1.0pp	none
San Antonio Spurs 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	21¢ / 22¢	22.0¢ / 23.0¢	1.0pp	none
Houston Rockets 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 2¢	2.0¢ / 2.1¢	0.6pp	none
Atlanta Falcons 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	1.0¢ / 1.1¢	0.5pp	none
Philadelphia 76ers 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	10¢ / 11¢	11.0¢ / 11.1¢	0.5pp	none
Chris Murphy 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.4¢ / 0.5¢	0.1pp	none
Éric Zemmour Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.5¢ / 0.6¢	0.1pp	none
François Ruffin Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.1pp	none
Sébastien Lecornu Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.2¢ / 0.3¢	0.1pp	none
Phil Murphy 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.1pp	none
Wes Moore 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 2¢	1.9¢ / 2.0¢	0.1pp	none
Hunter Biden 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.2¢ / 0.3¢	0.1pp	none
Cory Booker 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 1¢	0.6¢ / 0.7¢	0.1pp	none
Golden State Warriors 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 2¢	1.0¢ / 1.1¢	0.5pp	none
Chicago Bears 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	3¢ / 4¢	3.0¢ / 3.1¢	0.5pp	none
Green Bay Packers 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 2¢	1.9¢ / 2.0¢	0.5pp	none
Detroit Lions 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	3¢ / 4¢	3.0¢ / 3.1¢	0.5pp	none
Portland Trail Blazers 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.9¢ / 1.0¢	0.4pp	none
Washington Wizards 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.9¢ / 1.0¢	0.4pp	none
Xavier Becerra California Governor winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	96¢ / 97¢	95.9¢ / 96.2¢	0.4pp	none
Dominique de Villepin Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 1¢	0.7¢ / 0.9¢	0.1pp	none
Hillary Clinton 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.0pp	none
Jean Castex Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 0¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.0pp	none
Pete Buttigieg 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	5¢ / 5¢	5.0¢ / 5.1¢	0.0pp	none
Erling Haaland Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.4pp	none
Brooklyn Nets 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.4pp	none
Manchester United English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.8¢ / 1.0¢	0.4pp	none
Utah Jazz 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.8¢ / 0.9¢	0.4pp	none
Milwaukee Bucks 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.4pp	none
Kansas City Chiefs 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	9¢ / 10¢	9.8¢ / 9.9¢	0.4pp	none
Minnesota Vikings 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	3¢ / 4¢	3.1¢ / 3.2¢	0.4pp	none
Carolina Panthers 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.8¢ / 0.9¢	0.4pp	none
Coventry City English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.4pp	none
Ipswich Town English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.4pp	none
Sunderland English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.4pp	none
Fulham English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.4pp	none
Crystal Palace English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	0.4pp	none
Steve Hilton California Governor winner · Kalshi · Polymarket	4¢ / 4¢	3.6¢ / 3.7¢	0.1pp	none
Los Angeles Dodgers Pro Baseball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	21¢ / 21¢	21.0¢ / 22.0¢	0.5pp	none
Jacksonville Jaguars 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	6¢ / 7¢	6.2¢ / 6.3¢	0.3pp	none
Denver Broncos 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	3¢ / 4¢	3.2¢ / 3.3¢	0.3pp	none
Ousmane Dembélé Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.2¢ / 0.3¢	0.2pp	none
Michael Olise Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.2¢ / 0.3¢	0.2pp	none
Rodri Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.7¢ / 0.8¢	0.2pp	none
Memphis Grizzlies 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.2¢ / 0.3¢	0.2pp	none
Los Angeles Clippers 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.2¢ / 0.3¢	0.2pp	none
Chicago Bulls 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.2¢ / 0.3¢	0.2pp	none
Houston Texans 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	1¢ / 2¢	1.6¢ / 1.7¢	0.2pp	none
Dallas Mavericks 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.6¢ / 0.7¢	0.2pp	none
Los Angeles Lakers 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 3¢	2.3¢ / 2.4¢	0.2pp	none
New York Jets 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.3¢ / 0.4¢	0.1pp	none
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.3¢ / 0.4¢	0.1pp	none
Miami Dolphins 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.3¢ / 0.4¢	0.1pp	none
Milwaukee Brewers Pro Baseball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	46¢ / 47¢	46.2¢ / 46.9¢	0.1pp	none
Los Angeles Chargers 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.3¢ / 0.4¢	0.1pp	none
Tennessee Titans 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.3¢ / 0.4¢	0.1pp	none
Tottenham English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.3¢ / 0.4¢	0.1pp	none
Cleveland Cavaliers 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 3¢	2.5¢ / 2.6¢	0.1pp	none
New England Patriots 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	3¢ / 4¢	3.5¢ / 3.6¢	0.1pp	none
Chris Van Hollen 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.3¢ / 0.5¢	0.1pp	none
Las Vegas Raiders 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.5¢ / 0.6¢	0.0pp	none
Arizona Cardinals 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.4¢ / 0.5¢	0.0pp	none
Indianapolis Colts 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.5¢ / 0.6¢	0.0pp	none
San Francisco 49ers 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	11¢ / 12¢	11.4¢ / 11.5¢	0.0pp	none
New Orleans Saints 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.4¢ / 0.5¢	0.0pp	none
New York Giants 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.5¢ / 0.6¢	0.0pp	none
Torino Serie A Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.4¢ / 0.5¢	0.0pp	none
Brentford English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.4¢ / 0.5¢	0.0pp	none
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.4¢ / 0.5¢	0.0pp	none
Atalanta Serie A Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.4¢ / 0.5¢	0.0pp	none
Charlotte Hornets 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.4¢ / 0.5¢	0.0pp	none
Hull City English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	0¢ / 1¢	0.4¢ / 0.6¢	0.0pp	none
Greece UEFA Nations League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket	2¢ / 7¢	2.1¢ / 2.8¢	2.1pp	none
Harry Kane Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket	62¢ / 63¢	62.2¢ / 63.2¢	0.2pp	none

How to read the two gap columns

Midpoint gap is the distance between the middle of each exchange's bid and ask. It tells you how much the two crowds disagree, not what you could trade.

Locked gap is what is left if you buy YES where it is cheaper and NO on the other exchange, paying each ask. It is the highest bid on one exchange minus the lowest ask on the other. When that is above zero, the two positions together cost less than the $1 one of them must pay. 42 of today's 134 pairs show one. The yearly figure beside it spreads that gain over the days until the question resolves, because money tied up until 2028 is not the same as money back next month. Both figures are before exchange fees, and a gap this size can vanish before a second order fills.

How a pair gets on this page

We only pair markets whose identity we can check. Polymarket has to ask whether a named person or team will win a named contest. Kalshi has to list a who-wins event for that same contest and year, with exactly one open market carrying that name. Events about margins, vote share, who advances or who will run are rejected even when the wording looks close. We also drop pairs where either bid and ask are more than 10 cents apart, where the contest ends within three days, or where the two midpoints differ by more than 25 points, since a gap that large almost always means two different questions.

This replaces an earlier version of this page that matched markets by similar wording and listed pairs that were not the same event.

This is not trading advice. The two exchanges can word their resolution rules differently for the same contest, so read both rule pages before acting. Check which exchanges you are allowed to use where you live.