Every Kalshi and Polymarket contract in one place. Live implied probability, price history, volume, NOAA model edges. Built for traders who need data, not betting advice.
YES has moved 79.0 percentage points since the archive started. Research signal only, not trading advice.
See all biggest movers →Polymarket's "Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" stands out as a prime example of market interest in high-stakes political scenarios. With over $9 million in trading volume, this bet captures more than just speculation; it reflects broader public curiosity and investment in potential future leaders.
The concentration on Brazilian elections also highlights global geopolitical interests. Markets like "Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" and "Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" showcase how international investors are betting on regional politics, perhaps driven by economic or social factors in those countries.
These high-volume bets underscore the growing influence of prediction markets beyond just their immediate financial returns. They indicate a shift towards more dynamic forms of political engagement and analysis, where outcomes can be quantified and traded almost as commodities.
| Market | Category | YES | Volume | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $9,999,163 | · |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | politics | 1¢ | $9,720,757 | · |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | politics | 7¢ | $9,545,723 | · |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $9,534,959 | +0.1pp |
| Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | economy | 1¢ | $9,493,769 | · |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | economy | 3¢ | $997,929 | -0.6pp |
| Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | sports | 1¢ | $983,741 | · |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | economy | 2¢ | $983,109 | +0.3pp |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | economy | 17¢ | $977,958 | +4.0pp |
| Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? | sports | 1¢ | $961,032 | · |
Three contracts from today's book that reward a second look. Volume, edge, or resolution timing makes them sharper than average.
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