Longshots · 50 markets

Contracts trading under 10¢

Low-probability events priced under a dime. If they resolve YES, a 5¢ contract pays 20x. Most won't , that's why they're longshots. The market is pricing them that way for a reason.

Market	Platform	YES	Volume	Implied %
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Polymarket	7¢	$9,551,001	7.3%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,534,969	1.2%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Polymarket	3¢	$999,207	3.5%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$983,175	2.5%
Will the high temp in LA be 74-75° on Aug 13, 2026: 74° to 75°	Kalshi	3¢	$151,271	3.0%
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?	Polymarket	2¢	$99,508	2.8%
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$99,159	3.5%
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Polymarket	8¢	$99,035	8.0%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Polymarket	6¢	$98,923	6.4%
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$97,784	6.5%
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	5¢	$97,388	5.0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?	Polymarket	2¢	$97,257	2.9%
Will Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Polymarket	1¢	$96,810	1.3%
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$96,639	2.8%
Will the S&P 500 be between 7750 and 7774.9999 on Aug 13, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,750	Kalshi	8¢	$18,587	8.0%
Will the high temp in NYC be 87-88° on Aug 13, 2026: 87° to 88°	Kalshi	7¢	$16,436	7.0%
Will the high temp in Chicago be 82-83° on Aug 13, 2026: 82° to 83°	Kalshi	5¢	$10,403	5.0%
Will Truist fail by end of 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$9,973	3.5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	Polymarket	6¢	$9,961	6.6%
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-01 House seat?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,914	1.6%
Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Polymarket	2¢	$9,894	2.5%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO d	Polymarket	2¢	$9,881	2.4%
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$9,864	2.3%
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm ele	Polymarket	7¢	$9,836	7.1%
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-12 House seat?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,834	6.5%
Will the Republican Party win the PA-06 House seat?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,832	6.5%
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Polymarket	8¢	$9,820	8.5%
Will UNI reach $15.50 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,816	4.5%
Will the Republican Party win the NC-02 House seat?	Polymarket	3¢	$9,768	3.6%
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	9¢	$9,743	9.5%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,719	5.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-12 House seat?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,718	6.5%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by August 31?	Polymarket	7¢	$9,718	7.1%
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-02 House seat?	Polymarket	5¢	$9,708	5.5%
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Polymarket	7¢	$9,681	7.5%
Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,673	1.1%
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	Polymarket	7¢	$9,666	7.2%
Exact Score: PFK CSKA Sofia 3 - 3 MH Maccabi Tel Aviv?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,655	1.4%
Will Flávio Roscoe win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	5¢	$9,651	5.0%
Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Polymarket	8¢	$9,641	8.9%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in August 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,630	1.5%
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$9,620	4.0%
Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,602	6.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-22 House seat?	Polymarket	7¢	$9,589	7.5%
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Polymarket	5¢	$9,576	5.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-14 House seat?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,559	6.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-05 House seat?	Polymarket	5¢	$9,554	5.5%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz o	Polymarket	7¢	$9,543	7.5%
Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,525	4.5%
Will the Republican Party win the MN-03 House seat?	Polymarket	5¢	$9,522	5.5%

Markets priced in single digits are usually pricing tail risk: events that are possible but unlikely. The crowd has decided these contracts are worth only a few cents on the dollar.

Historically, longshot markets on prediction exchanges are slightly overpriced compared to true probability , a well-known bias called the "favorite-longshot" effect. But overpriced doesn't mean zero: some longshots do resolve YES and pay out 10-20x.