Longshots · 50 markets

Contracts trading under 10¢

Low-probability events priced under a dime. If they resolve YES, a 5¢ contract pays 20x. Most won't , that's why they're longshots. The market is pricing them that way for a reason.

Market	Platform	YES	Volume	Implied %
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Polymarket	1¢	$66,474,972	1.4%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Polymarket	2¢	$52,901,064	2.2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$43,951,479	2.1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$41,341,011	4.5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Polymarket	5¢	$27,125,757	5.5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$24,901,273	3.1%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$24,002,680	6.2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$18,608,177	1.6%
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Polymarket	2¢	$14,788,450	2.8%
Trump out as President before 2027?	Polymarket	3¢	$12,498,034	3.9%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$11,780,500	2.8%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$10,938,261	2.9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$8,498,296	3.9%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	2¢	$7,961,799	2.4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	9¢	$6,742,428	9.5%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	7¢	$6,530,541	7.3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Polymarket	1¢	$6,508,751	1.2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$5,249,819	2.9%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Polymarket	2¢	$4,524,520	2.9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$4,298,670	6.5%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Polymarket	3¢	$3,624,601	3.4%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$3,494,548	1.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$3,493,402	2.4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	8¢	$3,123,176	8.8%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Polymarket	5¢	$3,116,529	5.5%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$2,866,343	3.1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$2,671,907	3.4%
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$2,438,119	6.2%
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Polymarket	9¢	$2,307,024	9.5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$2,278,486	4.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	7¢	$2,187,435	7.5%
Human moon landing in 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$1,975,712	1.1%
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Polymarket	9¢	$1,471,597	9.5%
New pandemic in 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$1,216,432	4.5%
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	5¢	$1,202,030	5.4%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	Polymarket	2¢	$1,129,115	2.6%
Will BP be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$1,064,969	4.3%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$1,059,759	3.9%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$1,050,830	4.3%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$1,050,810	3.3%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$993,621	4.2%
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Polymarket	1¢	$965,571	1.1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Polymarket	7¢	$904,265	7.4%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Polymarket	1¢	$826,238	1.2%
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$783,738	2.2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Polymarket	9¢	$189,162	9.4%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$172,489	1.3%
Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Oct 13, 2026: 68° to 69°	Kalshi	3¢	$1,677	3.0%
Will the maximum temperature be >75° on Oct 13, 2026: 76° or above	Kalshi	4¢	$1,441	4.0%
Will the maximum temperature be 75-76° on Oct 13, 2026: 75° to 76°	Kalshi	3¢	$1,344	3.0%

Markets priced in single digits are usually pricing tail risk: events that are possible but unlikely. The crowd has decided these contracts are worth only a few cents on the dollar.

Historically, longshot markets on prediction exchanges are slightly overpriced compared to true probability , a well-known bias called the "favorite-longshot" effect. But overpriced doesn't mean zero: some longshots do resolve YES and pay out 10-20x.