Biggest movers · 50 markets

Markets making the biggest moves

Where the price has moved the most since we started tracking. Big moves mean new information hit the market , or that sentiment shifted without much new data.

Market	Platform	YES	Volume	Δ since start
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed'	Kalshi	1¢	$3	-48.5pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed'	Kalshi	35¢	$4	-41.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed'	Kalshi	10¢	$0	-39.5pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed'	Kalshi	2¢	$122	-39.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed'	Kalshi	13¢	$5	-36.5pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed'	Kalshi	15¢	$0	-34.5pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed'	Kalshi	83¢	$1	+33.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed'	Kalshi	81¢	$1	+31.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed'	Kalshi	21¢	$4	-29.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed'	Kalshi	25¢	$5,596	+21.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed'	Kalshi	30¢	$0	-20.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed'	Kalshi	55¢	$5,294	-18.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed'	Kalshi	32¢	$0	-17.5pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed'	Kalshi	33¢	$0	-16.5pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Polymarket	62¢	$5,600,388	+16.0pp
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Polymarket	30¢	$4,018,954	-14.8pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed'	Kalshi	35¢	$0	-14.5pp
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	63¢	$2,388,128	-12.0pp
Will the maximum temperature be 73-74° on Oct 13, 2026: 73° to 74°	Kalshi	10¢	$3,537	-12.0pp
Will the maximum temperature be 82-83° on Oct 13, 2026: 82° to 83°	Kalshi	44¢	$1,065	+12.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed'	Kalshi	38¢	$0	-11.5pp
Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026: 125,000	Kalshi	14¢	$1,624	-11.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed'	Kalshi	10¢	$16	-11.0pp
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	72¢	$1,078,943	-10.5pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed'	Kalshi	39¢	$0	-10.5pp
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	26¢	$3,812,154	-10.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed'	Kalshi	40¢	$0	-9.5pp
Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026: 70,000	Kalshi	43¢	$22,112	-9.0pp
Will above 30000 jobs be added in November 2026: Above 30,000	Kalshi	76¢	$648	+9.0pp
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Polymarket	64¢	$1,055,705	-8.5pp
Will the maximum temperature be <82° on Oct 13, 2026: 81° or below	Kalshi	42¢	$3,522	-8.0pp
Will the maximum temperature be <71° on Oct 13, 2026: 70° or below	Kalshi	36¢	$4,077	+8.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed'	Kalshi	43¢	$0	-7.0pp
Will the maximum temperature be 74-75° on Oct 13, 2026: 74° to 75°	Kalshi	33¢	$4,247	+6.0pp
Will above 50000 jobs be added in October 2026: 50,000	Kalshi	56¢	$18,467	-6.0pp
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	12¢	$1,993,184	-5.5pp
Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Oct 13, 2026: 68° to 69°	Kalshi	3¢	$1,677	-5.0pp
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	10¢	$2,406,448	+5.0pp
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Polymarket	30¢	$7,041,177	-5.0pp
Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026: 60,000	Kalshi	43¢	$1,712	-5.0pp
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$1,190,546	-4.3pp
Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026: 80,000	Kalshi	41¢	$14,938	-4.0pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Polymarket	14¢	$14,634,099	-4.0pp
Will the maximum temperature be >75° on Oct 13, 2026: 76° or above	Kalshi	4¢	$1,441	-3.0pp
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Polymarket	19¢	$7,688,437	+3.0pp
Will above 90000 jobs be added in November 2026: 90,000	Kalshi	40¢	$707	-3.0pp
Will above 0 jobs be added in November 2026?	Kalshi	79¢	$510	-3.0pp
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	10¢	$1,712,857	-2.5pp
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Polymarket	25¢	$1,316,859	+2.5pp
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$993,621	-2.3pp

Big price moves are the clearest sign the market is processing new information. Sometimes it's a news event, sometimes it's a weather forecast update, sometimes it's just the market catching up to data that was published days ago.

A +10pp move on a market that was 50/50 means someone (or the crowd) now thinks the event is 10 percentage points more likely than before. That's a meaningful shift in implied probability.