Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026: 125,000
What resolves this contract
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 125000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 14.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 14.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.
$10 on YES buys about 71 contracts that pay $71.43 if it happens; $10 on NO at 86.0¢ buys about 11.6 that pay $11.63 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 16.3% if it wins, with the money locked up for 52 days until December 4, 2026; that works out to about 188.3% a year.
Over the last 24 daily readings the YES price moved down 11.0 points, trading between 14.0¢ and 25.0¢.
$1,624 has traded on it on Kalshi, with $178 still riding on the outcome, making it number 177 by volume of the 212 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 14¢ means the market is pricing in a 14.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($1,624) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($178) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 14¢ | $14,634,099 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 96¢ | $8,874,134 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 80¢ | $8,856,080 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 125000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-04, 52 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 14¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 86¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 14¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 14.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $1,624 in total traded volume and $178 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.