politics

Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2027-10-24 Volume$99,959 Open Interest$16,668
YES
36¢
Implied probability: 36.5%
NO
63¢
Implied probability: 63.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 36¢ · High 37¢ · Δ -1.0pp
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YES Price
36¢
NO Price
63¢
Total Volume
$99,959
Open Interest
$16,668
Expiration
2027-10-24
Days Left
437
About this market

What resolves this contract

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources,

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 36¢ means the market is pricing in a 36.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($99,959) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($16,668) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources,

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2027-10-24, 437 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 36¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 64¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 36¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 36.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $99,959 in total traded volume and $16,668 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-08-13. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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